рус eng
«IZVESTIYA IRKUTSKOGO GOSUDARSTVENNOGO UNIVERSITETA». SERIYA «NAUKI O ZEMLE»
«THE BULLETIN OF IRKUTSK STATE UNIVERSITY». SERIES «EARTH SCIENCES»
ISSN 2073-3402 (Print)

List of issues > Series «Earth Sciences». 2025. Vol 52

Identification of Risks to Sustainable Development of Rural Settlements (Case Study of Some Districts of the Irkutsk Region)

Author(s)
N. V. Vorobyev, D. V. Margeeva
Abstract
In the predominant territory of Russia, the processes of polarization, urbanization and depopulation of rural areas lead to the compression of rural settlement systems, which is also typical for the Irkutsk region. This study proposes to consider the level of individual settlements in such systems – the distribution of settlements by the degree of their vulnerability, that is, an assessment of the risk of their sustainable development based on several factors. The analysis was carried out using the example of Kachugsky, Kirensky and Kuytunsky districts, when considering the transformation of the settlement of which a conclusion was made about the observed compression processes. Risk factors in this context are understood as the current conditions of location, economic activity and infrastructural provision of a settlement, increasing the likelihood of its depopulation and devastation. The following risk factors were identified and assessed: population size, lack of service facilities, transport connectivity, distance from the district center, the degree of development of economic activity. The total number of ranked settlements with a population of 0 to 500 people was 164. The integrated risk assessment allows us to identify three groups of settlements: high, medium and low risk. Taking into account the belonging of settlements to one or another risk category, a fundamental proposal is put forward on the strategy for their further development: controlled compression, stabilization, development. This approach allows prioritizing measures to form a more sustainable settlement system.
About the Authors

Vorobyev Nikolai Vladimirovich, Candidate of Sciences (Geography), Senior Research Scientist, V. B. Sochava Institute of Geography SB RAS, 1, Ulan-Batorskaya st., Irkutsk, 664033, Russian Federation, e-mail: nikvlv54@gmail.com

Margeeva Darya Vladimirovna, Applicant, V. B. Sochava Institute of Geography SB RAS, 1, Ulan-Batorskaya st., Irkutsk, 664033, Russian Federation, e-mail: daryamarg@gmail.com

For citation
Vorobyev N.V., Margeeva D.V. Identification of Risks to Sustainable Development of Rural Settlements (Case Study of Some Districts of the Irkutsk Region). The Bulletin of Irkutsk State University. Series Earth Sciences, 2025, vol. 52, pp. 19-34. https://doi.org/10.26516/2073-3402.2025.52.19 (in Russian)
Keywords
rural settlement, risk factors, depopulation, transport connectivity, economic activity, controlled shrinkage.
UDC
911.273 (571.53)
DOI
https://doi.org/10.26516/2073-3402.2025.52.19
References

Barinova V.A., Zemtsov S.P. Mezhdunarodnyi sravnitel'nyi analiz roli malykh i srednikh predpriyatii v natsionalnoi ekonomike: statisticheskoe issledovanie. [International comparative analysis of the role of small and medium-sizwd enterprises in the national economy: a statistical study]. Voprosy Statistiki [Statistical questions], 2019, vol. 26, no. 6, pp. 55-71. https://doi.org/10.34023/2313-6383-2019-26-6-55-71 (in Russian)

Vorob'ev N.V., Vorob'ev A.N., Margeeva D.V. Sovremennaya transformatsiya sel'skogo rasseleniya (na primere Verkhnelen'ya, Irkutskaya oblast') [Modern transformation of rural settlement (on the example of Verkhnelenie, Irkutsk region)]. Izvestiya Russkogo geograficheskogo obshchestva [Bulletin of the Russian Geographical Society], 2024, vol. 156, no. 4, pp. 375-390. https://doi.org/10.31857/S0869607124040091 (in Russian)

Gazizov R.M. Metod otsenki sel'skikh territorii i ikh tipologiya na primere Krasnoyarskogo kraya [Method of assessing rural areas and their typology on the example of Krasnoyarsk Krai]. Vestnik Altaiskogo gosudarstvennogo agrarnogo universiteta [Bulletin of ASAU], 2015, no. 3 (125), pp. 195-201. (in Russian)

Zelenyuk Yu.M., Salatin S.A. Transformatsiya sel'skikh sistem rasseleniya Irkutskoi oblasti v usloviyakh depopulyatsii (na primere Chunskogo raionnogo munitsipal'nogo obrazovaniya) [Transformation of rural settlement systems of the Irkutsk region in the context of depopulation (on the example of the Chunsky district municipality)]. Izvestiya Irkutskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriya Nauki o Zemle [Bulletin of Irkutsk State University. Earth Sciences Series], 2023, no. 46, pp. 65–78. https://doi.org/10.26516/2073-3402.2023.46.65 (in Russian)

Kostyaev A.I., Yurchenko T.V. Tipologiya selskikh territorii s uchetom modeli “Tsentrperiferiya” [Typology of rural areas taking into account the “Center-periphery” model]. Nauchnoe obozrenie: teoriya i praktika [Scientific Review: Theory and Practice], 2015, no. 4, pp. 147-149. (in Russian)

Kuznetsova N.F. Malye sela Rossii: sushchnost', osobennosti, problemy i puti ikh resheniya [Small villages of Russia: essence, features, problems and ways of their solution]. Azimut nauchnykh issledovanii: ekonomika i upravlenie [Azimuth of scientific research: economics and management], 2019, vol. 8, no. 4 (29), pp. 231-234. https://doi.org/10.26140/anie-2019-0804-0049. (in Russian)

Margeeva D.V. Analiz faktorov szhatiya sel'skikh sistem rasseleniya na primere nekotorykh raionov Irkutskoi oblasti [Analysis of factors of compression of rural settlement systems on the example of some districts of the Irkutsk region]. Geograficheskie issledovaniya Sibiri i AltaeSayanskogo transgranichnogo regiona: sbornik statei Mezhdunarodnoi nauchno-prakticheskoi konferentsii [Geographical studies of Siberia and the Altai-Sayan transboundary region: collection of articles of the International scientific and practical conference]. Barnaul, Publishing house of Alt. University, 2025, pp. 301-306. (in Russian)

Margeeva D.V. Szhatie sistem rasseleniya otdelnykh raionov Irkutskoi oblasti [Shrinkage of settlement systems of individual areas of the Irkutsk region]. Materialy XVII nauchnogo soveshchaniya geografov Sibiri i Dalnego Vostoka [Proceedings of the 27th scientific conference of geographers of Siberia and the Far East]. Irkutsk, V.B. Sochava Institute of Geography SB RAS Publ., 2024, pp. 276-279. (in Russian)

Merzlov A., Panteleeva O. Primenenie metodiki OESR dlya tipologii sel'skikh territorii v Rossii [Application of the OECD methodology for the typology of rural areas in Russia]. APK: ekonomika i upravlenie [AIC: economics and management], 2010, no. 5, pp. 84-85. (in Russian)

Problemy i perspektivy sotsialno-ekonomicheskogo razvitiya sel'skikh territorii: regional'nyi aspect [Problems and prospects of socio-economic development of rural areas: regional aspect]. Moscow, State Duma Publ., 2021, 320 p. (in Russian)

Kordonskii S.G., Plyusnin Yu.M., Krasheninnikova Yu.A. et al. Rossiiskaya provintsiya i ee obitateli (opyt nablyudeniya i popytka opisaniya) [Russian province and its inhabitants (observation experience and attempt at description)]. Mir Rossii [World of Russia], 2011, no. 1, pp. 3-33. (in Russian)

Smirnova A.A., Smirnov I.P., Tkachenko A.A. Rasselenie: osnovnye ponyatiya, podkhody, rezultaty issledovanii [Settlement: basic concepts, approaches, research results]. Tver, Tver State University Publ., 2024, 224 p. (in Russian)

Copus A., Kahila P., Fritsch M. et al. European Shrinking Rural Areas: Challenges, Actions and Perspectives for Territorial Governance. Final Report of ESPON ESCAPE. Luxembourg, 2020, 64 p.

Folke C. Resilience: The emergence of a perspective for social-ecological systems analyses. Global Environmental Change, 2006, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 253-267. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.04.002

Sikorski D., Latocha A., Szmytkie R. et al. Functional changes in peripheral mountainous areas in east central Europe between 2004 and 2016 as an aspect of rural revival? Kłodzko County case study. Applied Geography, 2020, vol. 122, no. 1, pp. 102223. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2020.102223

Li Y.H., Westlund H., Liu Y.S. Why some rural areas decline while some others not: An overview of rural evolution in the world. Journal of Rural Studie, 2019, vol. 68, pp. 145-163.

Makkonen T., Inkinen T. Benchmarking the vitality of shrinking rural regions in Finland. Journal of Rural Studies, 2023, vol. 97, pp. 334-344.

Polese M., Shearmur R. Why some regions will decline: A Canadian case study with thoughts on local development strategies. Papers in Regional Science, 2006, vol. 85, no. 1, pp. 23-46.

Regulation (EU) No 1305/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 17 December 2013 on support for rural development by the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD) and repealing Council Regulation (EC), no. 1698/2005. Available at: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/en/ LSU/?uri=CELEX%3A32013R1305

Latocha A., Szmytkie R., Sikorski D., Tomczak P., Kajdanek K., Miodońska P. Reviving villages – a proposal for a concept and identification. A methodological approach. Geographia Polonica, 2021, vol. 94, iss. 1, pp. 5-27. https://doi.org/10.7163/GPol.0191

Spangenberg M., Kawka R. Neue Raumtypisierung – landlich heilit nicht peripher. ASG Landlicher Raum, 2008, vol. 59, no. 2, pp. 27-31.

Svendsen G. L.H. Multifunctional centers in rural areas: Fabrics of social and human capital. International Journal of Social Inquiry, 2010, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 45-73.

Swiaczny F., Graze P., Schlömer C. Spatial Impacts of Demographic Change in Germany. Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, 2008, vol. 33, pp. 181-206.

Yarisheva T., Vlasenko I. Practice of rural settlement development in foreign countries. E3S Web of Conferences 363, 2022, vol. 04019. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202236304019


Full text (russian)