рус eng
«IZVESTIYA IRKUTSKOGO GOSUDARSTVENNOGO UNIVERSITETA». SERIYA «NAUKI O ZEMLE»
«THE BULLETIN OF IRKUTSK STATE UNIVERSITY». SERIES «EARTH SCIENCES»
ISSN 2073-3402 (Print)

List of issues > Series «Earth Sciences». 2025. Vol 54

Estimation of the Error in Determining the Maximum Water Flow Rates on the Rivers of the Dvinsko-Pechorsky Basin District

Author(s)

S. Yu. Pochepko1, A. E. Sumachev1, L. S. Banshchikova2

1 St. Petersburg State University, Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation

2 State Hydrological Institute, Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation

Abstract
The aim of the study is to develop practical recommendations for determining maximum water discharges in the absence of hydrological observation data using the reduction formula recommended by regulatory documents. The initial data are the maximum water discharge and spring flood runoff layers for 1950–2020 for the rivers of the Northern Dvina, Onega, Mezen, and White Sea basins. The initial data series were assessed for stationarity in terms of mean value and variance according to Student's and Fisher's criteria. The territory was divided into regions using hierarchical cluster analysis. The regional parameters used in the reduction formula were refined based on observations from recent years. The current values of the reduction formula parameters were obtained. Mapping of the average long-term values of spring flood runoff layers has been done. The error in determining maximum water discharge on dependent and independent material has been determined. The dependence of the error on the size of the catchment area, the number of hydrological stations in the sub-region, and other parameters has been assessed. A comparison of the error when using refined and outdated values of the reduction formula parameters and different approaches to determining the layers of spring flood runoff was made. Based on the analysis of the results, a conclusion about the most effective approaches to determining the parameters of the reduction formula for the studied area was made.
About the Authors

Sumachev Aleksandr Eduardovich, Candidate of Engineering Sciences, Senior Lecturer  Saint Petersburg State University 7-9, Universitetskaya emb., Saint Petersburg, 199034, Russian Federation e-mail: a.sumachev@spbu.ru 

Pochepko Sofia Yurevna, Student Saint Petersburg State University 7-9, Universitetskaya emb., Saint Petersburg, 199034, Russian Federation e-mail: pochepkosofia@gmail.com

Banshchikova Lyubov Svyatoslavovna, Candidate of Sciences (Geography), Senior Research Scientist State Hydrological Institute 23, 2nd Line V. O., Saint Petersburg, 199004, Russian Federation e-mail: BanshchikovaLS@yandex.ru

For citation
Pochepko S.Yu., Sumachev A.E., Banshchikova L.S. Estimation of the Error in Determining the Maximum Water Flow Rates on the Rivers of the Dvinsko-Pechorsky Basin District. The Bulletin of Irkutsk State University. Series Earth Sciences, 2025, vol. 54, pp. 87-104. https://doi.org/10.26516/2073-3402.2025.54.87 (in Russian)
Keywords
spring flood, maximum water discharge, reduction formula, flood flow layer, hydrological calculations.
UDC
556.048(28)
DOI
https://doi.org/10.26516/2073-3402.2025.54.87
References
  1. Beldiman I.N. Otsenka pogreshnosti raschetov maksimalnogo stoka malykh rek [Estimation of the error in calculating the maximum flow of small rivers]. Gidrosfera. Opasnye processy i yavleniya [Hydrosphere. Hazard processes and phenomena], 2021, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 59-71. (in Russian) 
  2. Vinogradov A.Yu., Doganovsky A.M., Obyazov V.A. Sushchestvuyushchie problemy gidrologicheskikh raschetov. Chast 1 [Existing issues of hydrology calculations. Part 1]. Gidrosfera. Opasnye processy i yavleniya [Hydrosphere. Hazard processes and phenomena], 2019, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 143-159. (in Russian) 
  3. Lobanov V.A., Nikitin V.N. Regionalnye modeli opredeleniya kharakteristik maksimal'nogo stoka v zavisimosti ot gidrograficheskikh faktorov [Regional models for determination of design maximum runoff versus hydrographic factors of watersheds]. Meteorologiya i gidrologiya [Meteorology and hydrology], 2006, vol. 11, pp. 60-69. (in Russian) 
  4. Malinin V.N. Statisticheskie metody analiza gidrometeorologicheskoi informatsii [Statistical Methods for Analyzing Hydrometeorological Information]. St. Petersburg, RSHU Publ., 2008, 408 p. (in Russian) 
  5. Vinogradov A.Yu., Shakirov A.F. et al. Otsenka vozmozhnosti ispol'zovaniya SP 33-101- 2003 dlya raschetov maksimal'nogo stoka na primere vodnobalansovoi stantsii Mezhdurech'e [Possibility of using SP 33-101-2003 for calculation of the maximum runoff on the example of the water balance station Mezdureche]. Gidrosfera. Opasnye processy i yavleniya [Hydrosphere. Hazard processes and phenomena], 2021, vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 259-274. (in Russian) 
  6. Rozhdestvenskij A.V., Lobanova A.G. Sovremennaya problema inzhenernykh gidrologicheskikh raschetov po obobshcheniyu gidrologicheskoi informatsii v Rossii i puti ee resheniya [Current problem of engineering hydrological calculations on generalisation of hydrological information in Russia and ways of its solution]. Meteorologiya i gidrologiya [Meteorology and hydrology], 2011, vol. 7, no. 36, pp. 81-95. (in Russian). 
  7. Shevtsov R.O. Raschet maksimal'nykh raskhodov vody neizuchennykh rek basseina Srednei i Nizhnei Pechory [Calculation of maximum water discharges of unexplored rivers of the Middle and Lower Pechora basin]. Perspektivy razvitiya inzhenernyh izyskanij v stroitelstve v Rossijskoj Federacii [Prospects for Development of Engineering Surveys in Construction in the Russian Federation]. Materials of the XII All-Russian Conference of Surveying Organisations, Moscow, 7-9 December, 2016. Moscow, 2016, pp. 232-239. (in Russian) 
  8. Blöschl G., Hall J., Viglione A. et al. Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods. Nature, 2019, vol. 573(7772), pp. 108-111. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6. 
  9. Blöschl G., Hall J., Parajka J. et al. Changing climate shifts timing of European floods. Science, 2017, vol. 357(6351), pp. 588-590. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aan2506
  10. Gelfan А. N., Frolova N. L., Magritskii D. V. et al. Climate Change Impact on the Annual and Maximum Runoff of Russian Rivers: Diagnosis and Projections. Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 2023, vol. 59, suppl. 2, pp. S153–S169. https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433823140074
  11. Cronshey R. Urban hydrology for small watersheds. US Dept. of Agriculture, Soil Conservation Service, Engineering Division, 1986. 
  12. Jacobson M. Validation of the SCS TR-55 method on Whangarei District Watersheds and Soil Types. USQ Project, 2019. 
  13. Roehr D., Kong Y. Stormwater runoff reduction achieved by green roofs: Comparing SWMM method to TR-55 method. Low Impact Development International Conference (LID), 2010, pp. 1012-1021. https://doi.org/10.1061/41099(367)88
  14. Tay H.N., Afshar N.R. Evaluation of runoff coefficient Samarahan Basin. International engineering conference, energy and environment (ENCON 2014), 2014, vol: Conference Proceeding, pp. 137-144. https://doi.org/10.3850/978-981-09-4587-9_P19.
  15. Hall J., Arheimer B., Borga M. et al. Understanding flood regime changes in Europe: a stateof-the-art assessment. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 2014, vol. 18, pp. 2735-2772. https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-10-15525-2013

Full text (russian)