The Medium-Term on-line Earthquake Forecast in Pribaikalye and it’s Potentialities
The paper analyses the results and potentialities as well as restrictions of the developed on-line approach to improvement of the medium-term on-line earthquake forecast in the context of conditions of information support and geodynamic development of Pribaikalye. Identified criteria for preparation of earthquakes and their validity are discussed. It is shown that limitations on accuracy of medium-term earthquake forecast are due to the lack of necessary information on deep processes in the preparation of earthquakes. However, the achieved level of justification of predictions can be assessed as satisfactory and useful for Main Department of the Ministry for Emergency Situations and administration of the Irkutsk region, with which there is a long-term cooperation of the Institute of the Earth’s crust specialists.